The 2024 Venezuelan Election

THE STORY SIMPLIFIED

CRITICAL CONTEXT

Chávez’s Leadership and the Rise of Maduro

After attempting a coup in 1992, Hugo Chávez was eventually released from prison and elected president in 1999, riding a wave of populist support and a booming oil economy. Under his leadership there was:

• Social Programs Expansion: Using profits from oil, Chávez funded extensive social programs aimed at reducing poverty, improving healthcare, and expanding education.

• Political Consolidation: Chávez consolidated political power by appointing loyalists to the Supreme Court and Central Bank, ensuring institutional support, and control of key state-run industries like petroleum.

• Anti-Western Alliances: Chávez championed a transition away from the US-led world order and strengthened ties with nations such as China, Russia, and Cuba. 

After Chávez’s death in 2013, Nicolás Maduro, his handpicked successor, assumed power.

ECONOMIC & HUMANITARIAN CRISIS

Maduro’s tenure has been marked by a deepening economic crisis and fiscal mismanagement, exacerbated by international sanctions imposed in response to his authoritarian governance. Key economic dynamics include:

• Hyperinflation and Currency Crisis: To finance the extensive social spending initiated by Chávez, the government printed vast amounts of Bolivars (Venezuela’s national currency), which led to runaway hyperinflation. The Bolivar was devalued by 95% in 2018 alone.

• Fixed Exchange Rate: Maduro’s government kept the Bolivar stable by depleting U.S. dollar reserves. However, this approach discouraged international investment in Venezuela's oil industry, leading to a decline in productivity. The artificially maintained exchange rate also fueled the rise of black markets. In a bid to stabilize the economy, the government introduced a cryptocurrency backed by oil reserves, but it was shut down in early 2024.

• Sanctions: In reaction to governance concerns (see sections below), the US applied sanctions that limited exportation of crude oil, which significantly exacerbated the economic struggle.

• Mounting Debt Defaults: Venezuela accumulated substantial debts in international credit markets but defaulted in 2017. This default further isolated the country, cutting it off from critical international credit and worsening its economic crisis.

• Humanitarian Crisis: By 2023, 20.1 million people required humanitarian aid, with two-thirds of children at risk of dropping out of school to support their families. GDP per capita has fallen by 80% since 2015.

The International Monetary Fund described Venezuela’s economic collapse as the largest in half a century.

INSTITUTIONAL REFORM

Amidst a decade-long crisis and growing public discontent, President Maduro undertook significant restructuring of Venezuela's political institutions:

• Controversial Judicial Appointments: The independence of the Supreme Tribunal of Justice, Venezuela’s highest court, is widely criticized as illegitimate. In 2015, 13 principal justices were appointed by an outgoing National Assembly in a process deemed invalid and unconstitutional by opposition members. 

• Dissolution of the National Assembly: In response to the opposition gaining a majority in the National Assembly, Maduro dissolved the institution. Maduro replaced it with the National Constituent Assembly in March 2017 - a body perceived as more supportive of his administration.

• Restrictions on NGOs: Maduro’s government enacted laws enabling the president to shut down non-governmental organizations (NGOs), restricting civil society’s role in addressing humanitarian and social issues.

• Partisan Electoral Oversight: The Supreme Electoral Council, tasked with overseeing elections, has faced accusations of bias and partiality towards Maduro, undermining its credibility and the perceived fairness of electoral processes.

THE MIGRATION CRISIS

Since 2014, Venezuela has experienced a massive exodus, with a quarter of its population fleeing the country. Key aspects of this crisis include:

• Mass Migration: Approximately 7.7 million people have left Venezuela since 2014, averaging about 1,500 departures per day.

• Desire to Emigrate: Around one-third of Venezuelan citizens have indicated they would consider leaving if Maduro is re-elected, reflecting widespread dissatisfaction and uncertainty about the country’s future.

• Militarized Borders: In response to the influx of migrants, the Venezuelan-Brazil border has been militarized, implementing measures to restrict the movement of people and control the flow of those seeking to escape the deteriorating conditions.

PRE-ELECTION STRATEGIES AND TACTICS

In the lead-up to the 2024 election, President Maduro employed a range of strategies to sway the outcome in his favor:

• Opposition Leader Ban: Maduro’s administration banned opposition leader María Corina Machado from participating in the election. This ban was upheld by the courts, resulting in a last-minute substitution of Machado with Edmundo González on the opposition ticket.

• Threats of Violence: Maduro made public threats of a “bloodbath” and “civil war” if he were to lose the election.

• Government Resources for Campaigning: The Maduro administration leveraged government resources to support his campaign efforts, using state machinery to bolster his electoral position.

• Media Restrictions: The opposition was denied access to state media, significantly limiting their ability to reach voters and present their platform.

In 2023, the U.S. adjusted its sanctions on Venezuela with the stated goal of promoting transparency in the electoral process and encouraging a fair and free election.

A CONTESTED ELECTION

Following the July 28th election, the National Electoral Council (CNE) announced that Maduro had won with 51.2% of the vote. The opposition, however, contested these results, alleging fraud and claiming they had actually won. Key developments include:

• Lack of Polling Station Data: The CNE have withheld results from each of the 30,000 polling stations, hindering external verification of the election outcome.

• Opposition Findings: The opposition managed to gather results from 80% of the missing polling stations, which indicated a two-to-one victory for opposition leader Edmundo González. Maduro’s regime dismissed these results as fraudulent. The Carter Centre, which had observers in Venezuela, and the United Nations have deemed the election non-democratic.

• Accusations and Threats: Maduro accused González and Machado of orchestrating a coup and called for their arrest. González, facing significant threats, has since sought asylum in Spain. Machado has gone into hiding.

DOMESTIC OUTCRY

Following the election, thousands of Venezuelans took to the streets to protest the lack of transparency, only to face a harsh response from authorities. Key points include:

• Widespread Protests: At least 187 protests were documented across 20 of Venezuela’s 23 states.

• Reports of Violence: Human Rights Watch received credible reports of 24 killings during the protests, attributed to independent local groups with some evidence suggesting government involvement.

• Injuries: Many protesters sustained injuries amidst the clashes with security forces.

THE GLOBAL RESPONSE

The international community has been divided in its response to Venezuela’s election:

• Recognition of González: Many countries, including Colombia, Brazil, Peru, Ecuador and Spain refused to recognized Maduro as the legitimate winner of the election, challenging the official results announced by the SEC.

• Support for Maduro: Long-time strategic allies of Venezuela, including China, Russia, Cuba, and Iran, have publicly accepted the election results and recognized Maduro as the president-elect.

• Political Asylum: Spain has granted political asylum to González, providing him refuge amidst the political turmoil.

• Sanctions and Seizures: The U.S. has imposed a new round of sanctions on Venezuela and seized Maduro’s airplane in Argentina in an effort to apply pressure on his regime.

• Human Rights Concerns: Several governments, including those of Argentina, Costa Rica, Chile, Ecuador, Guatemala, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, the Dominican Republic, and the U.S., have expressed serious concern over the human rights violations reported during Maduro’s post-election crackdown.

ALLEGATIONS OF ASSASSINATION PLOT

In the last 48 hours, President Maduro has made accusations regarding an alleged assassination plot against him. Key points include:

• Accusations Against Foreign Actors: Maduro claims that the CIA and other international entities were involved in plotting his assassination.

• Arrests Announced: Six individuals (including U.S. military personnel) have been arrested in connection with this alleged plot, which Maduro describes as part of a larger conspiracy against his government.

• U.S. Response: The U.S. government has strongly denied these allegations, labeling them as “categorically false” and a distraction from the genuine issues at hand.

The recent Venezuelan elections have been marred by allegations of electoral fraud, political repression, and severe humanitarian distress. As President Maduro maintains power amid mounting domestic and international outcry, the situation continues to unfold.