Trump’s Treasures: The Link Between Critical Mineral Dependence and Threats to Allies

CRITICAL CONTEXT: U.S. DEPENDENCE ON CRITICAL MINERALS & PAST SOLUTIONS
The U.S. sits atop a vast and intricate supply chain, relying on scarce and strategically critical minerals for its economy and national security—yet it controls only a fraction of global reserves.

• Limited Domestic Supply: The US holds less than 2% of global reserves for rare earth elements, graphite, cobalt, and nickel.

• Economic Impact of Supply Disruptions: According to the National Center for Policy Analysis, rare earths drive $298B in economic activity, supporting 535,000 U.S. jobs and $33.3B in payroll. They also warn that disruptions could severely impact industries and quality of life.

• Past Solutions: Recent U.S. administrations – President Trump’s and President Biden’s – have pursued diplomatic policies to secure critical mineral supply chains.

  
  The Trump Administration

  • 2020 Joint Action Plan with Canada: President Trump signed a Joint Action Plan with Canada to secure critical mineral supply chains, focusing on reducing reliance on foreign sources, particularly China.

  • Energy Resource Governance Initiative (ERGI): The U.S. partnered with Australia and Botswana to promote transparent and sustainable mineral markets under the ERGI program.

  • Energy Act of 2020: This legislation directed federal agencies to identify critical minerals and reduce barriers to mining and production.

  • Executive Orders:Trump issued multiple executive orders addressing critical mineral vulnerabilities, including declaring a national emergency to expedite domestic mining and refining.

  The Biden Administration

  • Mineral Security Partnership (2024): The Biden administration launched this U.S.-led initiative with the EU and 13 other nations to finance critical mineral projects, counter China's dominance, and enhance global cooperation.

  • Executive Order 14017 (2021): Biden issued this order to assess U.S. supply chain vulnerabilities and implement over 70 actions to strengthen resilience in critical minerals, semiconductors, and other strategic sectors.

  • Progress on Projects: Under the Mineral Security Partnership, approximately 32 projects were initiated across the supply chain, including 19 focused on upstream mining and extraction.

CRITICAL CONTEXT: CHINA’S FOREIGN POLICY AND EXPORT CONTROLS

China integrates resource security into its broader geopolitical strategy, leveraging infrastructure investments and export controls to dominate global mineral markets.

• Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) Infrastructure-for-Mineral Deals: China trades infrastructure for resource access, particularly through the BRI. Two examples include:

  • Sino-Congolais Des Mines (2007): China secured cobalt and copper rights in the DRC by pledging $6.5B for infrastructure. Today, Chinese firms own or control stakes in 15 of Congo’s largest mines.

  • Société Minière de Boké (SMB) – Guinea (2014-Present): SMB obtained three mining concessions in Guinea’s Boké region, gaining access to vast bauxite reserves. In exchange, China developed roads and ports, with plans for an alumina refinery and coal-fired power plant.

  • Check out our analysis on China’s strategy of infrastructure development in Africa: Ports of Power: China’s Expanding Grip on Africa’s Trade Gateways.

• Export Restrictions:  China has repeatedly used export controls on critical minerals, disrupting global and U.S. supply. Rare earth quotas, imposed since the 2000s, drew concern after China halted shipments to Japan in 2010. More recently, China retaliated against U.S. tariffs by restricting key minerals (details to follow).

Through strategic investments and export controls, China has cemented its influence over critical mineral supply chains, representing a significant challenge to the U.S. economy and security.

A CHANGE OF TONE: TARIFFS ON ALLIES AND SOVEREIGNTY-FOR-MINERALS DEALS

The Trump administration has threatened and implemented protectionist economic policies on historically allied nations—countries that could help the U.S. reduce its dependence on Chinese minerals. However, this strategy complicates cooperation, as it creates economic friction and makes these nations less likely to work with the U.S. unless faced with substantial economic or military pressure.

To counter this, the administration appears to be explicitly challenging the sovereignty of countries holding the critical minerals the U.S. requires:

• Canada – Trump has continually expressed a desire to make Canada the 51st state of the US. Prime Minister Trudeau dismissed the notion, stating, “Not a snowball’s chance in hell.” Further Trudeau reportedly told business leaders that the Trump administration is "very aware of our resources, of what we have and they very much want to be able to benefit from those" Check out our analysis titled Essential or Expendable? A Deep Dive into Canada-US Economic Ties Amid Tariffs.

• Greenland – Trump openly expresses interest in acquiring Greenland, emphasizing its mineral reserves and strategic value. In a Congressional speech, he states the U.S. will secure access “one way or another.” Greenland firmly rejects the idea.

• Ukraine – The Trump administration negotiated a deal offering the U.S. a claim to 50% of revenue from all new Ukrainian resource projects in exchange for continued military aid against Russia. When the deal was not signed in February, Trump withdrew all aid and pressured allies to halt intelligence sharing with Ukraine, reinforcing a stark "no deal, no support" approach for a democratic nation under attack by Russia.

As the U.S. pushes to reduce its reliance on China and withdraw from global trade networks, the country’s dependence on crucial minerals remains a pressing issue. This contradiction—seeking self-sufficiency while still relying on imported resources—raises important questions: What are these critical minerals? What role do they play in modern technology and defense? And how much of these valuable resources do Canada, Greenland, and Ukraine actually possess? 

THE TREASURES: DEEPDIVE INTO CRITICAL MINERALS

The modern U.S. economy relies heavily on critical minerals that it either cannot produce or does not produce domestically, yet these minerals are essential to countless industries.

GRAPHITE

Graphite plays a critical role in steel production, automotive manufacturing, lubricants, and battery technology—particularly as the anode material in most lithium-ion batteries. It also is used extensively in military applications including rocket and missile nozzles, jet engine components, submarine hulls to reduce acoustic signatures, and more.

Global Supply and Import Dependence: China accounts for 77% of the world’s graphite production, with the U.S. sourcing 44% of its supply from China. Despite its reliance on imports, the U.S. has no active graphite mines.

Geopolitical Shifts: In response to supply chain vulnerabilities, the U.S. imposed a 25% tariff on Chinese graphite anodes to encourage domestic production in June of 2024. China countered with export permit requirements for graphite products, directly affecting U.S. imports.

Reserves and Mining Projects in Threatened Nations

• Canada: As of 2021, Canada ranked ninth in global graphite reserves (1.7% of total) and ninth in production (0.7% of global output).

  • Lac des Iles Mine: Produces 10,000–15,000 tonnes of graphite concentrate annually, with plans to expand to 25,000 tonnes.

  • Uatnan Mining Project: Targeting a substantial 500,000 tonnes of graphite concentrate per year over a 24-year span, representing 31.25% of the current global production.

• Greenland: While not currently mining graphite, Greenland is actively exploring high-purity deposits.

  • Amitsoq Graphite Project: Considered one of the world’s highest-grade graphite deposits, with 23.05 million tonnes at an average grade of 20.41% graphitic carbon.

  • Akuliaruseq: Exploration work in 1986 outlined and test-drilled four favorable blocks, defining an open-ended indicated resource of 5.34 million tonnes grading 9.5% carbon. The project is now being revisited for potential development.

• Ukraine: Ukraine reported 13 million tonnes of graphite reserves as of 2020.

  • Zavallivske Deposit: One of Europe’s largest known graphite reserves. Production at the Zavalievsky mine was suspended in December 2024.

TUNGSTEN

Predominantly used in hard metals for cutting tools, mining equipment, aerospace, and wear-resistant components across various industries. It also is used extensively in military application from armor-piercing ammunition to aircraft and missile components to nuclear weapon shielding.

Import Dependence: The U.S. has not commercially mined tungsten since 2015 and relies heavily on imports to meet domestic demand. In 2023, 19.3% of U.S. tungsten imports came from China, the world’s largest producer with 80% of global production.

Geopolitical Shifts: China implemented export permit requirements for tungsten, wherein all exporters now require state approval as of February 4th, 2025.

Reserves and Mining Projects in Threatened Nations: 

Canada: Canada holds an estimated 290,000 metric tonnes of tungsten reserves, accounting for approximately 8.3% of global supply.

• Cantung Mine (Northwest Territories): Once North America’s largest tungsten mine, it operated from 1962 to 2015 before shutting down due to low tungsten prices and financial difficulties.

• Mantung Project (Yukon): A developing project targeting one of the world's largest high-grade tungsten deposits. The U.S. Department of Defense invested $15.8 million to support its development.

Greenland: Greenland is estimated to have approximately 500,000 metric tonnes of undiscovered tungsten resources in vein-type and skarn-type deposits.

Ukraine: Ukraine's tungsten reserves have been recognized as strategically important. U.S. President Donald Trump highlighted their value in negotiations related to Ukraine’s mineral resources, as part of efforts to reduce reliance on Chinese-controlled critical minerals.

ANTIMONY

Used in flame retardants, lead-acid batteries, and as an alloying element in various metals. It is also used in several military applications including Hardens lead in bullets and armor-piercing rounds, applied to military uniforms, tents, and vehicle covers as a flame retardant, utilized in nuclear weapons production and submarines, and military electronics, including communication equipment and infrared detectors.

Import Dependence: The United States imports 82% of its antimony demand. The U.S. has no marketable antimony mines but produces 18% via recycling of lead acid batteries.

Geopolitical Shift: China implemented an outright ban on exporting antimony to the US in December 2024 and prices in the U.S. increased 250%. China produces approximately 48% of global antimony.

Reserves and Mining Projects in Threatened Nations: 

Canada: Canada has multiple documented antimony deposits and historical mining activity but not active mines. 

• Howells Lake Antimony Gold Project: This project is a significant mineral exploration venture with an estimated 1.7 million tons grading 1.7% antimony.

• Other projects include: George Lake South Antimony Project, Clarence Stream and Bald Hill deposits, and New Polaris Gold Project.

Greenland: Greenland is believed to have globally significant deposits of antimony with high-grade mineralization.

• Eleonore North Project: A promising mineral exploration venture by GreenX Metals Limited, they have Antimony deposits grades at up to 23%. 

• Other projects include: North Margeries Dal, Broget Dal, Ymer Ø, Ilua plutonic suite.

Ukraine: Ukraine does not appear to have antimony deposits; however, geographic mapping in Ukraine is outdated. 

GERMANIUM

Used in fiber-optic systems, infrared optics, and as a semiconductor in electronics and as a consequence are used heavily both commercially and in military applications.

Import Dependence: The U.S. imported 50% of their germanium demand while germanium-containing zinc concentrates are produced at mines in Alaska and Tennessee.

Geopolitical Shifts: China implemented an outright ban on exporting germanium to the US in December 2024. China produces approximately 60% of global germanium.

Reserves and Mining Projects in Threatened Nations: 

Canada: Canada supplied 20% of U.S. germanium (oxide) imports in 2023.

• The Trail Smelter: Located in British Columbia and owned by Teck Resources, The Trail Smelter is considered one of the few major germanium producers outside of China, refined from zinc concentrates.

• North Rackla Project: Located in Yukon it revealed exceptionally high-grade germanium mineralization, with drill results showing up to 180 g/t germanium in association with significant silver-lead-zinc deposits, potentially positioning it as a crucial Western source for this critical metal

• Macpass Project: Located in Yukon, as of 2024 the project has indicated resources of 614,800 kg of germanium. 

Greenland: Greenland is predicted to have significant germanium deposits:

• Kangerluarsuk Project: Located in central West Greenland, this project is focused on zinc-lead-silver deposits with indications of germanium potential in polymetallic mineralization

• The Ilímaussaq Alkaline Complex: Located in South Greenland contains germanium primarily in arfvedsonite (2.4–4.3 ppm) and aegirine (2.5–4.3 ppm), with unusually low concentrations in microcline (down to < 0.2 ppm), suggesting a total germanium content ranging from approximately 0.9 to 1.8 ppm across various rock types within the complex

Ukraine: Ukraine's germanium reserves exceed 40,000 tons, with an estimated potential value of $170 billion.

•  Zaporizhzhya Titanium Magnesium Plant: Ukraine extracted germanium from coking coal at coke chemical plants and processed it, producing purified germanium tetrachloride and optical monocrystalline germanium lenses. No longer in operation.

GALLIUM

Used in semiconductors for LEDs, solar cells, and wireless communications devices. It is also critical for advanced military technologies, used in semiconductors for radar systems, missile defense, electronic warfare, and communication devices, making it strategically vital for maintaining technological superiority in defense applications.

Import Dependence: The U.S. imports 100% of its gallium supply, making it completely reliant on foreign sources. A US geological survey found that a 30% gallium supply restriction could reduce US GDP by $600B.

Geopolitical Shifts: China implemented an outright ban on exporting gallium to the US in December 2024. China produces approximately 98% of global gallium.

Reserves and Mining Projects in Threatened Nations: 

Canada: Canada has multiple gallium deposits and exploratory projects. 

1. Macpass Project (Yukon): Operated by Fireweed Metals, this project includes significant gallium as a by-product alongside zinc, tungsten, and germanium.

2. Rio Tinto Gallium Extraction (Quebec): Rio Tinto is developing a process to extract gallium from bauxite at its alumina refinery in Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean, with plans for a demonstration plant capable of producing 3.5 tons per year and eventually scaling to 40 tons annually, which could supply 5–10% of global gallium production.

3. Mound Lake Project (Ontario): Snow Lake Energy discovered elevated gallium values, with samples showing concentrations up to 110.5 ppm, aligning with its strategy to secure critical minerals for AI and clean energy technologies

Greenland: Greenland has significant gallium deposits.

1. Tanbreez Rare Earth Mine: A exploratory project that has discovered one of the world's highest concentrations of gallium at 147 ppm Ga₂O₃ in the Area G zone, alongside significant rare earth element deposits

Ukraine: Ukraine was the world's 3rd largest producer of gallium in 2019, accounting for 1.3% of global output and now rank 5th as of 2025. All gallium comes as a byproduct of other mining activities.

Other resources that have China has exerted export controls over include: 

1. Bismuth

2. Molybdenum 

3. Indium

If you are currently in the interactive application, highlight any one of them and begin asking questions.

FURTHER NOTABLE DEPENDANCIES:

Titanium: Vital for aerospace (jet engines, airframes) and military applications (armor, missiles). The U.S. imports ~100% of titanium sponge, with China influencing 34% of global mineral production. Ukraine holds ~20% of global reserves, with active mining in Zhytomyr. Canada and Greenland have smaller undeveloped deposits.

Uranium: Essential for nuclear energy and weapons. The U.S. imports ~95% of uranium, primarily from Canada and Kazakhstan. China controls 13% of global production. Ukraine hosts Europe’s largest uranium reserves, while Canada is a top producer. Greenland’s deposits remain unexploited due to uranium mining bans.

Lithium: Critical for EV batteries and military electronics. The U.S. relies on imports for ~75% of supply, with China refining 60% globally. Ukraine holds ~33% of Europe’s lithium reserves, though extraction is hindered by conflict. Canada has emerging projects; Greenland’s deposits are untapped.

Niobium: Critical for aerospace, defense, and energy sectors, niobium is used in high-strength steels for pipelines, automotive bodies, and military applications like jet engines and hypersonic missiles. The U.S. is 100% import-dependent for niobium, with China controlling a significant portion of global processing. Canada is the world's second-largest producer (after Brazil), with the Niobec Mine accounting for 7-8% of global production. Greenland holds substantial undeveloped reserves, including the Motzfeldt Mine with 130 million tonnes of ore. Ukraine has multiple deposits, notably in Novopoltavske, though development is hindered by the ongoing conflict.

Arsenic: Used in semiconductors and munitions. The U.S. imports 57% from China. Limited mining occurs in Canada; Ukraine and Greenland have trace deposits.

Cobalt: Key for batteries and jet turbines. The U.S. imports ~80%, largely from Congo, with China controlling 70% of refining. Canada has active mines; Greenland holds potential reserves.

Rare Earth Elements (REE): Vital for missiles, drones, and renewables. The U.S. imports 74% from China. Ukraine has untapped REE reserves; Canada and Greenland are developing projects.

• Yttrium: Used in radar systems and superconductors. The U.S. is 100% import-dependent, with 94% from China. Minor deposits exist in Canada; Ukraine’s reserves are unquantified.

• Terbium: Essential for lasers and sonar systems. China controls 90% of global supply. Canada and Greenland have rare earth deposits containing terbium.

• Scandium: Critical for aerospace alloys. The U.S. imports 100% from China and Russia. Ukraine and Canada have undeveloped reserves.

• Dysprosium: Used in magnets for drones and wind turbines. China supplies 85% globally. Greenland’s Kvanefjeld project could offset dependence; Canadian deposits are minimal.

• Neodymium: Critical for permanent magnets used in electric vehicles, wind turbines, and drones. China controls 70% of global rare earth production, including neodymium. Canada and Greenland have potential reserves, but they remain underdeveloped

The U.S. faces a complex challenge: striving for self-sufficiency while remaining reliant on critical mineral imports. As relationships with key suppliers shift, securing these essential resources may become increasingly difficult. If diplomatic and economic strategies fall short, the question remains—how will the U.S. adapt to ensure its supply chains remain intact? Will the U.S. get them ‘one way or another’?

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