The Drone Age: Warfare's Next Chapter

CRITICAL CONTEXT: A BRIEF HISTORY OF AERIAL DRONES

The evolution of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) reflects one of the most profound shifts in military technology since firearms first appeared on the battlefield. UAVs have transformed from rudimentary observation platforms to autonomous weapons systems that are redefining modern warfare.

Inception: Early UAVs:

• Austrian Incendiary Balloons (1849): In what is considered one of the first uses of unmanned aerial weapons, Austria attacked Venice using unmanned hot air balloons loaded with explosives.

• Queen Bee Drones (1930s): The British developed radio-controlled aircraft primarily used as target practice for anti-aircraft gunners, marking one of the first true UAVs.

Observation: Reconnaissance Takes Flight

• US Firebee Drones (1960s-1970s): Over 1,000 ‘Ryan Firebees’ flew surveillance missions over Southeast Asia. They were deployed by the US Air Force from Japan, South Vietnam, and Thailand, conducting daytime and nighttime surveillance, leaflet-dropping missions, and detection of both surface-to-air and air-to-air missiles over North Vietnam and southeast China.

• Israeli Innovation (1970s-1980s): Israel pioneered modern military drones with the IAI Scout and Mastiff systems, which provided crucial Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance capabilities during the 1982 Lebanon War, allowing real-time battlefield assessment and target acquisition.

• Iranian Deployment (1980s): During the Iran-Iraq War, Iran began developing and deploying basic reconnaissance drones, signalling the spread of this technology beyond major powers.

Weaponisation: From Watching to Striking

• MQ-1 Predator (1995): Developed by US defence company General Atomics, the Predator was initially designed for reconnaissance before being armed with Hellfire missiles post-9/11, transforming drones from observers to lethal strike platforms. 

• MQ-9 Reaper (2007): Purpose-built as a "hunter-killer" platform by General Atomics. The Reaper succeeded the MQ-1 Predator and became the backbone of U.S. drone operations in 2007 when it entered service in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, and the Sahel region of Africa, with its most notable recent use coming in 2022 when the CIA used it for a precision strike that killed al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in Kabul.

The New Frontiers:

Democratization: 

• Commercial Authorization (2006): The US Federal Aviation Authority's approval of commercial drones marked the beginning of "dual-use" drone technology, significantly accelerating the civilian drone industry's growth, and inadvertently blurring distinctions between military and civilian drone technology. 

• DJI Phantom (2013): The Chinese company DJI (founded in 2006) released the Phantom series, featuring integrated cameras and GPS capabilities, making advanced drone technology widely accessible and adaptable for improvised military use.

• Ukraine (2022-present) – The Russia-Ukraine conflict transformed ad-hoc drone experimentation into industrial-scale drone warfare. This conflict would become the first true testbed for nearly every drone concept, from low-cost FPV kamikaze drones to autonomous swarms—radically reshaping modern warfare doctrine.

Automation:

• STM Kargu (2020): Turkey's Kargu drone in Libya showcased the novel spectrum of drone autonomy—from human-directed strikes to "fire, forget and find" systems. Autonomy ranges from requiring human target selection and approval to full independent targeting.

• Blurring Boundaries: A UN report suggested a Kargu drone may have autonomously selected targets during Libya's civil war, though evidence remains inconclusive. The Kargu case reveals how the line between human and algorithmic decision-making in warfare has become increasingly technical rather than categorical.

Once passive observers, now active executioners—drones have evolved from watching war to waging it as humans begin to be phased out of the loop.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT: THE DRONE LAB

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has emerged as history's first true drone-centric war, functioning as a laboratory for testing and advancing unmanned systems at unprecedented scale and speed. What began with limited capabilities has exploded into industrial-scale production. Several key insights into the uses of drones have emerged from conflict: 

Mass Drone Production

As in all wars, industrial capacity powers the front lines. The efficacy of drones in the early days of the conflict prompted large-scale mobilisation of drone production from both sides:

• Industrial Scale and Consumable Doctrine: Ukraine pioneered industrial-scale drone production early in the conflict supported by tax incentives and streamlined certification. By 2024, 96% of drones were domestically assembled across 200 registered companies. This rapid scaling underpins a new paradigm of "consumable warfare" with Ukraine losing approximately 10,000 drones monthly—treating them as expendable munitions rather than persistent assets.

• Russian Production Response: Russia accelerated production to 1.4 million drones in 2024—ten times its 2023 output—establishing 15 production centers nationwide with plans for 48 by 2030.

• Future Projections: Russia aims to produce 3-4 million drones in 2025, while Ukraine plans to produce or acquire 4.5 million drones in the same timeframe. This industrial escalation marks a definitive shift to high-volume drone attrition.

Asymmetric Warfare: Cost-Effective Combat

This conflict has revealed unprecedented cost asymmetries, where inexpensive unmanned systems can neutralize or force the expenditure of vastly more expensive conventional assets:

• Economic Disparity: The stark contrast between an armed $500 FPV drone capable of destroying a $4.5 million Russian T-90M tank exemplifies the asymmetric advantage of drone warfare.

• Tactical Versatility: FPV drones enable precision attacks against tanks, personnel, and equipment while performing reconnaissance and suppressive actions comparable to artillery.

• Cost-Benefit Analysis: The $35,000 Russian Geran-2 (a domestically-produced version of the Iranian Shahed-136) kamikaze drones force the expenditure of much costlier defensive systems, with anti-air missiles often exceeding $100,000 per unit.

UAV vs. Counter-UAV Technology: An Evolutionary Arms Race

The frontlines in Ukraine have become a daily race of counter-drone innovation, with both sides iterating solutions in real-time. This constant cat-and-mouse game has accelerated development cycles from years to days, with drones and their countermeasures evolving rapidly:

• Countermeasure Evolution:  Russian defenses include improvised "turtle tanks" with metal grills and chains to advanced vehicle-mounted jamming systems. Ukrainian forces utilize portable "hedgehog" backpack jammers effective up to 10 km.

• Jamming and Counter-Jamming: As electronic warfare intensified, both sides have developed fiber-optic controlled drones that bypass jamming entirely—with Ukrainian models recently testing 20 km cables.

• Directed Energy Weapons: In 2022, Russia claimed to have fielded laser systems capable of downing drones in seconds at 5km ranges—claims that remain heavily contested. In 2024, Ukraine deployed its operational Tryzub Laser with a verified 2km effective range against Shahed drones. These systems represent a potential inflection point in air defense economics, offering drone neutralization at the speed of light for a fraction of conventional anti-air missile costs.
  

DIY and Decentralized Warfare: The Devolution of War

• Civilian Technology Adaptation: Ukrainian operators used consumer platforms like Google Meet to livestream drone footage, providing commanders with immediate battlefield intelligence.

• Grassroots Production: Crowdfunding campaigns enabled rapid production expansion, with volunteer groups like Social Drone assembling over 700 drones weekly in Kyiv.

• Distributed Manufacturing: Ukraine now hosts approximately 500 drone startups including smaller firms and volunteer groups, with systems like the AQ400 Scythe designed for simple "Ikea-style" assembly.

The Rise of USVs: Extending Drone Warfare to the Sea

• Naval Drone Warfare: Having lost most of its conventional navy early in the conflict, Ukraine deployed unmanned surface vessels (USVs) like the Magura V5 and Sea Baby in sophisticated swarm attacks, reportedly damaging or destroying one-third of Russia's Black Sea Fleet.

• Multi-Domain Evolution: Ukraine has developed increasingly sophisticated USVs combining ramming charges, mine-laying capabilities, and even aerial drone hangars, while later equipping them with anti-air capabilities that successfully downed Russian Mi-8 helicopters hunting for USVs.

• Strategic Victory: The effectiveness of Ukraine's unmanned naval campaign ultimately forced Russia's Black Sea Fleet to retreat from Crimea to Novorossiysk, demonstrating how low-cost unmanned systems can challenge conventional naval power and achieve strategic objectives traditionally requiring massive fleet assets.

If you enjoy our content, consider supporting us so we can keep doing what we do. You’d get double the analyses a month and unlimited access to our interactive platform.

EXPORTING UNMANNED POWER: THE DRONE DEALERS OF THE 21ST CENTURY

The global drone market has evolved from a niche military sector dominated by a few advanced nations into a competitive marketplace where regional powers leverage domestic innovation to gain strategic advantage, diplomatic influence, and export revenue. This proliferation has fundamentally altered the dynamics of global power projection, with countries previously dependent on Western imports now becoming exporters themselves.

Turkiye: The Disruptive Newcomer

Turkiye has recently emerged as the leading exporter of combat drones, partially driven by past arms embargoes and limitations in acquiring foreign technology. It has captured 65% of global sales since 2018, primarily driven by Baykar's Bayraktar TB2 combat UAV.

• Cost Advantage: Its flagship combat UAV, the Bayraktar TB2 costs approximately $5 million per unit—about one-sixth the price of comparable U.S. Reaper drones—making advanced air power accessible to mid-tier military powers.

• “Bayraktar Diplomacy”: Baykar has exported the TB2 to 34 countries and its advanced Akıncı heavy armed drone to 10 nations, dramatically expanding its global footprint and influence.

• Future Developments: Turkey is advancing its drone capabilities with the TB3 (the first carrier-capable combat UAV with folding wings), the Kızılelma stealth drone, and purpose-built drone carriers like the TCG Anadolu.

China: Replicate and Proliferate

China has exported over 280 combat drones in the past decade to at least 17 countries, primarily in the Middle East, North Africa, and South Asia.

• Commercial Dominance: Through companies like DJI, China controls approximately 80% of the global civilian drone market, with DJI alone holding a 74.3% market share. These quadcopter drones are used extensively in the Russia-Ukraine conflict despite official export restrictions.  

• Reverse Engineering: The Wing Loong Series and CASC Rainbow combat UAVs are clear copies of the American MQ-9 Reaper, demonstrating China's strategy of copying Western designs at significantly lower cost.

• Price Advantage: Chinese UAVs typically cost 50-70% less than Western alternatives, with the CH-5 priced at approximately $8 million-half the cost of the American Reaper it emulates.

Iran: The Sanctions-Defying Exporter

Iran has leveraged its decades of sanctions-era aerospace development to become a pivotal drone producer and exporter, creating global impact far beyond its economic size:

• Military-Industrial Complex: The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps operates Shahed Aviation Industries and Qods Aviation Industries, which have pioneered Iran's armed drone development despite international isolation which has necessitated indirect procurement of drone parts from countries such as the US.

• Russian Partnership: Iran has supplied thousands of Shahed-136, Mohajer-6, and Shahed-191 drones to Russia for use in Ukraine since 2022, while collaborating on joint development of derivatives, training exchanges, and technology transfers which has enabled localised production of Shahed drones in Russia.

• Expanding Exports: Iran has exported drones to countries like Venezuela and Sudan, while equipping proxies such as the Houthis, Hezbollah, and other aligned groups across the Middle East with drone technology and capabilities.

United States: The Regulated Power

America's drone export policy balances technological advantage with careful strategic distribution:

• Export Controls: The U.S. maintains stringent controls on military UAV exports but has supplied certain NATO allies with its best-in-class MQ-9 Reaper drones.

• Strategic Sales: The USA approved the sale of four MQ-9B drones to Taiwan, along with control stations and advanced navigation systems, as part of its Indo-Pacific strategy.

• Ukraine Support: The U.S. provides drones to Ukraine via government-to-government sales as a limited exception to export restrictions, maintaining control over advanced capabilities.

The global drone export landscape is no longer dictated solely by the U.S. and its allies. Turkey and China now offer capable, cost-effective systems that are changing procurement strategies worldwide. Meanwhile, Iran’s widespread and often indiscriminate drone exports have made advanced aerial weaponry accessible to isolated regimes and proxy actors alike. As a result, lethal unmanned technology is proliferating at a rapid pace, shifting the balance of power across regions and reducing the barrier to entry for modern air warfare.

DRONE SUPERPOWERS: HOW THE US-CHINA AERIAL ARMS RACE IS AUTOMATING WARFARE

The world’s top two defence spenders are locked in more than a tech contest—it’s a preview of tomorrow’s wars. As both pour billions into autonomy, they’re blueprinting a faster, cheaper, and less human battlefield that could define 21st-century conflict. 

China: Scale First, Innovate Fast

While selling cut-cost alternatives to restricted and premium cost advanced combat UAVs, China also controls ~80% of the global commercial drone market thanks to DJI.

• From Copy to Capability: China has transformed from mimicking Western UAVs to developing leading-edge systems, with next-gen stealth drones now matching or exceeding U.S. standards according to Pentagon assessments.

• PLA's Vision for “Intelligentized” Warfare: China is developing algorithmic warfare and swarm drone capabilities to enable fully autonomous attacks by 2030.

• Advanced Multi-Domain Capabilities: China's comprehensive unmanned systems strategy includes the Type 076 drone carrier, the 10-ton Jiu Tian "mothership" UAV deploying kamikaze swarms mid-flight, the 60-meter "Orca" naval vessel, and vehicle-mounted high-energy laser counter-drone systems.

United States: From Quality to Quantity

Despite fielding the world’s most advanced aircraft and weapons, the U.S. has taken a hard lesson from Ukraine: manufacturing scale matters. In the drone age, cheap, disposable systems can prove more decisive than premium hardware.

Pivot to Scale: With the US Department of Defence’s Replicator Initiatives, the US is now racing to field thousands of low-cost, expendable drones with autonomous swarm capabilities.

• Replicator 1 (August 2023): Over 500 companies engaged; 75% were non-traditional defence players. More than 30 received contracts e.g. Anduril and AeroVironment.

• Replicator 2 (September 2024): Expanded the focus to counter-drone capabilities and layered defence systems—key in an age of drone-on-drone warfare. 

• Kinetic & Directed Energy Counter-UAS: From interceptor drones like Raytheon’s Coyote and Anduril’s Roadrunner to laser & microwave weapons, the U.S. is deploying both physical and energy-based weapons to destroy or disable incoming drones at low cost and high speed.

• Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA): Rather than focus solely on autonomous aerial fleets, the US Air Force has $5.8B committed between 2024-2028 to build over 1,000 autonomous "loyal wingmen" drones, designed to fly alongside F-35 fighter jets.

• Naval Domain – “Force Design 2045”: US Navy aims to integrate 150 unmanned surface vessels (USVs) with 373 manned ships for a hybrid fleet.

US Drone Developers – Free Market Innovation

While incumbent defence contractors like Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, General Atomics, and Boeing still dominate the space, a new wave of agile defence tech startups is reshaping the unmanned systems landscape:

Anduril Industries: Founded in 2017 by Palmer Luckey, Anduril develops autonomous defence technologies with a focus on software-driven integration. It seeks to “pioneer solutions for the software defined conflicts of tomorrow” at speed. Its current product suite includes (highlight to learn more):

• Lattice OS – The software powering their autonomous systems.

• Roadrunner – Reusable kinetic counter-UAV device.

• Fury – A "loyal wingman” for manned fighter jets.

• Dive-LD – Autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV). 

Shield AI: Founded in 2015 by former Navy SEAL Brandon Tseng and his brother Ryan, Shield AI develops autonomous systems as well as their own drones capable of swarm operations in contested environments. Their technology portfolio includes: 

• Hivemind: AI software enabling autonomous capabilities for drone swarms in GPS-denied environments.

• V-BAT Teams: Vertical takeoff and landing autonomous drone swarms for reconnaissance.

Kratos Defence: Partnered with the US Air Force to develop the XQ-58A Valkyrie, a low-cost autonomous stealth drone designed to operate as a "loyal wingman" in swarms with US fighter jets. Kratos is collaborating with Shield AI  to develop an AI pilot for the Valkyrie using the Hivemind software.

AeroVironment: Produces Switchblade 300/600 loitering munitions—small, tactical drones selected for the Replicator program to give infantry cheap, disposable strike capability.

Beyond the corporate competition and technical innovation, the strategic trajectory of both superpowers raises fundamental questions about the future of warfare. Both the US and China's strategies prioritize autonomy, raising ethical questions comparable to those of nuclear weapons, with large autonomous swarms holding the potential to function as Weapons of Mass Destruction.

WORDS, ACTIONS, AND ETHICS: THE AUTONOMY DIVIDE

Although ostensibly America is emphasizing human oversight and China is embracing "intelligentized warfare" with full machine autonomy, the reality is more complex:

US Contradictions

• Department of Defense Directive 3000.09 requires "appropriate human judgment" yet permits "human-on-the-loop" (where humans supervise autonomous operations but don't need to approve each action) systems. 

• The Replicator Initiative and Collaborative Combat Aircraft programs develop autonomous systems for denied environments where autonomous operation is necessary. 

• The US has also rejected binding lethal autonomous weapon systems (LAWS) treaties.

China's Strategic Ambiguity

• In the past, China has advocated for limited UN protocols banning only the use of fully autonomous lethal weapons—not their development or production. 

• Its proposed definition at the Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons narrowly characterizes LAWS as systems with no human control, indiscriminate effects, and irreversible deployment— excluding its own AI-enabled weapons programs. 

• This position was reinforced when China abstained from UN Resolution L.77 on LAWS (October 2024).

Irrelevant of their public philosophies, both nations' military programs increasingly converge toward systems that minimize—if not eliminate—human involvement in the kill chain. Fundamentally, if either power were to maintain ethical restraints while the other embraces full autonomy, they would concede a decisive advantage on tomorrow's battlefield.