The Global Houthis

THE STORY SIMPLIFIED

CRITICAL CONTEXT

The Yemeni Civil War and Houthi Movement

Since 2014, Yemen has been engulfed in a civil war driven by deep-rooted political, sectarian, and regional rivalries. The Houthis have gained significant power through the conflict. Some of the dynamics include:

• 2014: Houthi rebels, representing Yemen’s Zaidi Shia minority, capture the capital Sanaa, forcing President Hadi into negotiations.

• 2015 February: With a presidential council appointed by the Houthis, President Hadi flees to Aden, Yemen.

• 2015 March: A Saudi-led coalition launches military operations against the Houthis, turning Yemen into a proxy battlefield for regional powers Saudi Arabia and Iran.

• 2016-2017: Ceasefire agreements repeatedly break down as hostilities intensify. The Houthis claim responsibility for missile strikes on Saudi targets.

• 2017 December: Former President Saleh, who switched allegiance to the Saudi coalition, is killed by Houthi forces.

• 2018 January: Southern separatists, backed by the UAE, seize control of Aden, adding complexity to the already multifaceted war.

• 2019: By this point, the Houthis control approximately 30% of Yemen’s territory, including the most densely populated regions, solidifying their influence.

The conflict continues to represent one of the worst humanitarian crises in modern history, with peace remaining elusive.

ISRAEL-HAMAS CONFLICT

While the Israel-Hamas conflict has been largely confined to Gaza and Israel, the Houthis have expanded the theater of conflict by attacking Israeli-allied ships in the Red Sea, citing solidarity with Palestine. To understand the Houthis' strategy, it’s essential to grasp the ongoing conflict in a nutshell:

• October 7, 2023: Hamas launched a surprise attack in Israel, resulting in the deaths of approximately 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and the taking of 240 hostages.

• Israeli Response: In retaliation, Israel initiated a major military campaign targeting Hamas in Gaza, employing airstrikes, ground operations, and blockades on essential supplies like food and water. So far, more than 40,000 Palestinians have been killed according to the Gaza Health Ministry.

• Israel’s Objective: Israel has declared that its goal is the total elimination of Hamas, pledging to continue military operations until this is achieved.

Israel’s key allies include the United States, Canada, and much of Europe, reflecting broad Western support for its efforts.

*We decided to omit the events of the Israel-Hamas conflict from our Extensive Map since we plan to do a more complete analysis in the future.

HOUTHI ATTACKS ON COMMERCIAL SHIPS IN THE RED SEA

In November 2023, Houthi rebels began targeting commercial vessels in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, with over 80 attacks recorded so far. The following incidents are among some of those captured in the Boundless Discovery map:

• November 19, 2023: The Houthis seized a British-owned, Japanese-operated cargo ship using a helicopter and took 25 crew members hostage. The vessel remains in Yemen and has since been repurposed as a tourist attraction.

• February 18, 2024: A missile strike hit the UK-owned bulk carrier Rubymar, causing it to take on water. The 24-person crew was rescued, and on March 2, 2024, the Houthis sank the vessel. The ship carried 40,000 tons of fertilizer and 200 tons of fuel, which spilled into the surrounding waters.

• March 6, 2024: Houthis launched anti-ship missiles at the Liberian-owned cargo ship True Confidence, resulting in the deaths of three crew members. A Houthi spokesperson claimed the ship was of U.S. origin. A European mission later assisted in towing the damaged vessel to safety.

• August 21, 2024: The Houthis attacked the Greek-flagged oil tanker MV Delton Sunion, which was carrying 1 million barrels of oil. While salvage teams initially towed the vessel, the situation was deemed too dangerous, forcing its suspension. This incident is ongoing and poses the risk of a potentially catastrophic oil spill.

THE ECONOMIC IMPORTANCE & CONSEQUENCES OF THE ATTACKS

The Red Sea and Gulf of Aden are critical chokepoints in global trade, directly connecting to the Suez Canal - a vital corridor between Europe and Asia. In the wake of Houthi attacks, many shipping companies have rerouted around the Horn of Africa, adding two weeks and significant costs to their journeys.

Key facts include:

• 22% of global container ships pass through this region.

• Freight costs in Europe have surged by 173% as companies absorb the higher costs of rerouted shipping.

• The U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency reports a 90% reduction in container shipping through the Red Sea since the attacks began.

Economists warn that the increased shipping costs will likely be passed on to consumers, exacerbating inflation in Europe and the United States, where both regions have been experiencing rising prices over the past several years.

WESTERN MILITARY ACTION AGAINST THE HOUTHIS

In response to the Houthi attacks on commercial vessels, a UK and US-led coalition launched Operation Poseidon Archer on January 12, 2024. 

• The aerial offensive deployed over 150 precision-guided munitions targeting 60 sites in Yemen, including weapons depots and drone launch facilities.

• The operation has faced criticism for potential non-compliance with international law, raising concerns among human rights organizations and international observers.

IRAN’S PURPORTED ROLE

Iran has been accused by western governments of providing missiles, drones, and marine vessels to the Houthis to aid in the attacks on ships.

• It’s been reported that Iran has provided weapons to the Houthis since the early 2010s in a proxy war with the Saudi Arabia-backed Yemeni Government. The Houthis are thought to have joined Iran’s “Axis of Resistance”.

• The use of a hypersonic missile by the Houthis points to Iranian support since they are one of the few countries capable of such technology.

• Iranian officials have denied providing weapons to the Houthis.

COMPLICATED ALLIANCES

Iran has stated it maintains a strong relationship with China and Russia, and initially the Houthis signalled that they would avoid targeting vessels linked to these nations. However, several events have complicated this narrative:

• Criticism of U.S. Operations: Both Russia and China publicly criticized U.S.-led military interventions in Yemen, labeling them as illegal.

• China's Naval Response: Following attacks on China-linked ships, China deployed its 46th Navy fleet to the region, signalling increased military protection for its interests.

• Houthi Attack on a Shadow Tanker: Despite prior assurances, the Houthis struck a shadow tanker in May carrying Russian and Venezuelan oil to China with an anti-ship missile. The strike disabled the vessel’s propulsion and steering systems, raising questions about the scope of Houthi assurances.

• June 27, 2024: China and Russia abstained from a U.N. Security Council vote condemning the Houthi attacks on commercial vessels.

INCREASED INTERNATIONAL MILITARY PRESENCE IN THE RED SEA

The Red Sea has become a hotspot for military operations, with various nations increasing their naval presence to protect commercial vessels from Houthi attacks. Key protection-focused missions include:

• Operation Prosperity Guardian: Led by the U.S., this multilateral mission aims to ensure freedom of navigation through the Red Sea. The operation has successfully intercepted multiple drone and missile strikes. Notably, the USS Mason shot down 18 drones, two cruise missiles, and one ballistic missile.

• Operation Aspides: A European-led “defensive” escort mission focused on protecting vessels and rescuing those impacted by Houthi attacks.

It is considered on of the most intense naval engagements since the last World War; however, despite these efforts, the Houthis have been able to continue to afflict damage on passing ships.

THE YEMENI PEOPLE’S SUPPORT

The Houthis have seen increased civilian support for their attacks on vessels in the Red Sea, largely due to the pro-Palestinian positioning of these actions. Key developments include:

• U.S. Designation of Houthis as a Terrorist Group: Following the U.S. decision to label the Houthis as a ‘terrorist group,’ widespread protests erupted across Yemen. Demonstrators condemned the move and voiced their support for the Houthis’ cause.

• Mass Civilian Protests: Thousands of Yemeni civilians have taken to the streets to express solidarity with the Houthi attacks on commercial ships, viewing these strikes as part of a broader resistance aligned with pro-Palestinian sentiment in the region.

HOUTHIS’ MILITARY ENGAGEMENT WITH ISRAEL

With advanced military capabilities, likely backed by Iran, and growing support from the Yemeni populace, the Houthis have successfully escalated their engagements with Israel directly. Key developments include:

• Drone Warfare Success: Over the past year, the Houthis have engaged directly with Israel, achieving notable success using drone technology to carry out strikes. This marks a significant development in the regional conflict, as Iran is believed to have provided advanced drone systems to the Houthis.

• Israeli Counter-Offensive: In response to these escalating attacks, Israel launched a counter-offensive airstrike on key Houthi positions in Yemen, targeting drone facilities and command centers. This operation occurred in July 2024.

• Hypersonic Missile Strike on Tel Aviv: In a major escalation, a hypersonic missile launched by the Houthis hit Tel Aviv last week. This is a rare and significant use of hypersonic missile technology, which has previously only been deployed in the Ukraine-Russia conflict and has not yet been utilized by the U.S. military. Hypersonic weaponry is considered to be significantly more difficult to defend against.

The rise of the Houthi rebels as a significant force in the Middle East illustrates the complexities of regional conflicts and the influence of advanced weaponry. Once a low-tech insurgency, the Houthis have evolved into a formidable power, largely due to the use of sophisticated weapons, including hypersonic missiles. This shift poses serious concerns for international security and global trade, highlighting the broader implications of arms proliferation. As global powers respond, the intersection of local conflicts, international alliances, and humanitarian crises will shape the region’s future. Understanding these dynamics is key to comprehending the current geopolitical landscape.