Fractured Ice: Balancing Politics, Defense, and Cooperation in the Arctic

GOVERNANCE INFRASTRUCTURE AND COMPETING CLAIMS
With the borders between different Arctic nations remaining unclear, the legal path for dividing the Arctic came into force in 1994 with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Most notably:

• Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs): UNCLOS established EEZs, a concept that provides coastal states sovereign rights to explore, exploit, conserve, and manage natural resources within 200 nautical miles from their baselines (shoreline).

• Continental Shelf Extensions: Under UNCLOS, nations can extend their claims to the seabed by providing scientific evidence that the area is a natural extension of their continental shelf.

Despite its global influence, the U.S. has not ratified UNCLOS. Meanwhile, Canada, Russia, the U.S., Norway, and Denmark (via Greenland) have overlapping claims to the Arctic Ocean, often extending beyond their EEZs and leading to disputes over rights to the Arctic’s extended continental shelf.

COOPERATION TO NON-COOPERATION

Attempts to substantiate these extended continental shelf claims with scientific evidence have led to significant intergovernmental scientific agreements and cooperation:

• The Arctic Council (1996): Comprising eight Arctic states and Indigenous organizations, it promoted cooperation and sustainable development. It facilitated agreements like:

  • Agreement on Enhancing International Arctic Scientific Cooperation

  • Agreement on Cooperation on Marine Oil Pollution Preparedness and Response in the Arctic

  • The Arctic Search and Rescue Agreement

  However, cooperation faltered following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Non-Russian members suspended participation in the Arctic Council, resuming projects without Russia – a pivotal, often adversarial player.
  

• RUSALCA (2004-2015): The Russo-American Long Term Census of the Arctic drove joint U.S.-Russian research in the Chukchi Sea and Bering Strait. Despite surviving Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea, rising U.S.-Russia tensions led to the end of the initiative in 2015.

Amid these tensions, bilateral negotiations have provided a counterbalance:

• Hans Island:  Canada and Denmark resolved a 51-year dispute by splitting this uninhabited island between Nunavut and Greenland nearly in half.

• The Beaufort Sea: Canada and the U.S. began talks in 2011 over competing claims over the Sea. While unresolved, both countries agreed to ban commercial fishing in the region, illustrating limited cooperation despite broader disputes.

These bilateral efforts highlight the possibility of localized diplomacy, even as broader multilateral cooperation erodes.

COUNTRY-BY-COUNTRY MILITARY AND POLITICAL BREAKDOWN

Russia

Isolated from Arctic states due to its war with Ukraine, Russia has intensified its military presence and actions in the region, raising significant concerns among neighboring nations.

Military Exercises:

• Okean (Ocean) 2024: A large-scale naval exercise that occurred over six days in September of 2024 is considered to be the most significant naval exercise undertaken by Russia since the Soviet era. The exercise reportedly involved more than 90,000 personnel and 7000 units of weapons and special equipment.

• Nuclear Preparedness and the Grom (Thunder) Drill: Russia has conducted several nuclear-focused drills, including the annual Grom exercise, which tests procedures for "a massive nuclear strike in response to a nuclear strike by an adversary." Notable nuclear activities include:

  • Test launches of Tsirkon hypersonic and Bulava missiles from nuclear-powered submarines

  • Multiple Tsirkon missiles launched from the frigate Admiral Gorshkov, including incidents inside Norway’s EEZ

  • Training flights by nuclear-capable bombers over neutral Arctic airspace

Russia has additionally conducted many smaller exercises in the Arctic in recent years using their Northern Fleet, including search-and-rescue operations, mine-sweeping tests, anti-submarine warfare, and shipping route protection training.

Military Interactions: 

• Routine overflights by long-range bombers, such as the Tu-160, have become more frequent in Arctic airspace. NATO scrambled jets over 300 times in 2023 to intercept Russian aircraft near Allied airspace.

• Russia scrambled its own jets to intercept NATO aircraft, including during an unsafe close pass of a UK RC surveillance plane over the Barents Sea.

Political Dynamics

• Arctic 2035 Plan: The Russian plan aims to assert sovereignty, exploit resources, expand infrastructure, and establish the Northern Sea Route as a global shipping hub.

• Acts of aggression against Ukraine have driven neighboring Arctic states to join NATO, further isolating Russia.

The United States of America

The United States, an Arctic nation through its northernmost state, Alaska, holds the status of the world's most powerful military and the de facto leader of NATO. As a result, they play a major role in Arctic security defense.

Military Exercises: 

1. The Joint Pacific Multinational Readiness Center (JPMRC) 24-02: Held from February 13 to 22, 2024, in Alaska, this exercise was the largest multinational Arctic training event to date. With 10,000 participants and 800 paratrooper jumps, it focused on cold-weather and combat skills training. Canada played an active role, while Norway and Finland participated as observers.

2. Arctic Edge: A biennial exercise led by the U.S. Northern Command, the 2024 edition involved 400 joint and allied special operations forces training in Alaska’s extreme conditions.

The U.S. also participates heavily in other multinational exercises, including Arctic Challenge, UK Strike Warrior, Cold Response, and Operation Nanook.

Military Interactions

• The U.S. Air Force has scrambled their fighter jets multiple times in response to activity in the Alaskan Air Defense Identification Zone and near European allied aerospace.

• U.S. overflights of the Barents Sea and Norwegian Sea have triggered Russian fighter jet escorts.

• In October 2024, while on patrol, the U.S. Coast Guard encountered a joint Russian-Chinese naval exercise involving seven warships operating within five miles of the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone.

Political Dynamics: President Trump has made controversial comments about Arctic sovereignty, including threats to Canada and Greenland. He has expressed interest in acquiring Greenland from Denmark and suggested making Canada the 51st U.S. state through economic pressure.

Canada

With the longest Arctic coastline and 40% of its landmass in the Arctic, Canada plays a critical role in Arctic security. Key elements of its defense include:

• Operation Nanook: Canada’s signature annual northern exercise conducted by the Canadian Armed Forces. 

  • It comprises four main activities: NUNALIVUT (High Arctic winter operations), TATIGIIT (disaster response), TUUGAALIK (maritime operations), and NUNAKPUT (inland and coastal operations in the Northwest Passage).

  • Several nations participate in Operation Nanook including the U.S., Denmark, Sweden, Finland, France, Belgium, and Germany.

• NORAD (North American Aerospace Defence Command): A binational organization between Canada and the USA, Canada recently announced a $36.8B investment to modernize NORAD. Through NORAD, Canada contributes to:

  • Exercise Amalgam Dart: his air defense exercise involves both the Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF) and United States Air Force (USAF), involving multiple military capabilities and objectives. 

  • NORAD has scrambled fighter jets when Russia has flown into Canadian and US Exclusive Economic Zones.

Canada has been involved in several other NATO exercises including Arctic Challenge and Arctic Edge.

Recent Political Dynamics:

In April 2024, Canada unveiled an updated defense policy, “Our North, Strong and Free,” which stresses the importance of Arctic security.

Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump has voiced intentions to make Canada the 51st state, citing concerns over Canada’s defense spending and subsidizing the Canadian economy. This rhetoric could fuel tensions between the two countries.

Norway

Norway, a founding member of NATO with a strategic 196-kilometer land border with Russia, has significantly increased its military presence and capabilities in the High North over the past decade. As tensions with Russia have grown, Norway has taken several steps to bolster its Arctic defense:

Military Exercises:

• Exercise Joint Viking: Biennial winter warfare exercise in northern Norway (March 2023) with 20,000 soldiers from 10 NATO allies. Focused on cold-weather combat, small-unit tactics, and logistics.

• Nordic Response: A biennial military exercise hosted in Norway, Finland and Sweden. The most recent iteration in March 2024 consisted of 20,000 personnel from 13 nations. 

• Other key exercises: Cold Response, Arctic Bolt, and Formidable Shield.

Military Interactions:

• Norway has frequently scrambled fighter jets to meet Russian strategic bombers, anti-submarine aircraft, and maritime patrol aircraft flying in Norwegian airspace.

• In March 2022, the Norwegian Coast Guard tracked the Russian cruiser Peter the Great in the Banana Hole of the Norwegian Sea, which are international waters.

• Norway has also deployed the frigate KNM Thor Heyerdal to patrol the Barents Sea near Russia’s Kola Peninsula.

Recent Political Dynamics:

In 2023, Norway introduced Arktis 2030, an initiative to support Arctic economic projects and defend sovereignty, supplementing its High North Strategy (2005).

Finland

Finland, a Nordic nation with a 1,340 kilometer border with Russia, has emerged as a crucial player in Arctic security since joining NATO in April 2023. With its long-standing tradition of military preparedness and expertise in cold-weather operations, Finland brings significant capabilities to NATO’s northern flank:

Military Exercises:

• Northern Forest 24: A major exercise held in May 2024 in Northern Finland, focusing on NATO interoperability. It involved approximately 4,500 Finnish soldiers, 2,000 U.S. soldiers, and 300 Norwegian soldiers, making it one of the largest Arctic operations in recent years.

• Arctic Challenge 2023: A multinational air defense exercise co-hosted by Finland, Norway, and Sweden, featuring 150 aircraft and 3,000 personnel from 14 countries.

• Finland has also conducted numerous trainings with the U.S., including bilateral jet refueling exercises.

Military Interactions:

• Finland has scrambled jets to intercept Russian aircraft approaching Finnish airspace.

• Finland has frequently permitted U.S. aircraft to patrol its airspace.

Recent Political Dynamics: 

Finland’s NATO membership, finalized in 2023, was a response to the changing security environment after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Sweden

Though not traditionally considered an Arctic power, 15% of Sweden’s territory is above the Arctic Circle. In recent years, Sweden has increasingly recognized its strategic role in Arctic security, enhancing military cooperation with neighboring countries to counter regional threats, particularly from Russia.

Military Exercises: 

• Winter Sun Exercise: An annual Swedish military exercise focused on defensive operations in winter conditions, held in Boden. The 2024 iteration included 900 soldiers, including U.S. special forces.

• Sweden co-hosts Arctic Challenge with Norway and Finland and participated in Exercise Joint Viking in Norway.

Military Confrontations: 

• Sweden scrambled two JAS-39 Gripen fighter jets in June 2024 to intercept a Russian Su-24 bomber that entered Swedish airspace near Gotland.

• Swedish surveillance aircraft were active near Russia's Kola Peninsula and in the Murmansk region.

Political Dynamics: 

Sweden joined NATO in 2023, a significant shift from its long-standing policy of military non-alignment, in response to the changing security environment following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Greenland

Greenland, an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark, is increasingly vital to Arctic security due to its strategic location and rich natural resources. The territory does not have its own military, with the Danish military responsible for its defense, and the Icelandic Coast Guard patrolling its waters and monitoring its airspace.

Military Infrastructure:

• Thule Air Base: The northernmost U.S. military base, established during the Cold War, plays a key role in early warning radar systems and missile defense, bolstering NATO's capabilities in the region.

Political Dynamics: 

U.S. President Donald Trump has expressed interest in purchasing Greenland, while Greenland actively seeks independence from Denmark, making it an official goal in February 2024.

Iceland

Iceland, a founding NATO member with no standing military but strategically positioned in the North Atlantic, plays a crucial role in Arctic security through its unique air defense and surveillance systems (Iceland Air Defence System – IADS), hosting key NATO exercises and providing critical infrastructure for monitoring and defending the High North.

Military Exercises:

• Northern Viking 2022: A joint defense exercise between Iceland, the U.S., and three other allied nations, focusing on the defense of shipping routes through the Greenland-Iceland-United Kingdom (GIUK) Gap and key infrastructure like the Keflavik Air Base.

Notable Non-Arctic Players

China:
China has declared itself an Arctic state, but under UNCLOS it has no legal claim to the region outside of strategic partnerships. Consequently, China has worked closely with Russia to develop the Polar Silk Road via the Northern Sea Route. These initiatives have led to joint Arctic naval and air drills with Russia, raising concerns among the U.S. and Arctic allies.

The United Kingdom:
While not an Arctic state, the UK plays a significant role in Arctic security, particularly in the GIUK Gap. Through its signature UK Strike Warrior Exercise, which involves maritime and air operations with NATO  allies, the UK conducts Arctic drills and maintains Camp Viking, a military base in northern Norway.

India:
India holds a unique position in Arctic security, maintaining relationships with both the U.S. and Russia. It is part of the U.S.-India Major Defence Partnership while also collaborating with Russia on Arctic commercialization plans and participating in Russian-led military drills like Vostok.

As the Arctic ice retreats, its untapped resources and emerging trade routes hold the potential to reshape the global economy. Arctic nations are acutely aware of the stakes, investing heavily in military capabilities and forging alliances to secure their interests. Whether overlapping claims can be resolved peacefully under UNCLOS remains uncertain. What is certain, however, is that the Arctic is no longer a distant frontier – it is rapidly becoming a stage for escalating tensions, where nations are not just preparing for cooperation but also bracing for potential conflict.

Subscribe now to ensure you don’t miss future analyses!