A Consequential Alliance: North Korea and Russia

THE STORY SIMPLIFIED

CRITICAL CONTEXT:

To understand the dynamics driving North Korea's presence in Russia, it is critical to understand the Korean War and the alliances it forged, how North Korea has evolved since that time, and the basics of the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Korean War and Longstanding Geopolitical Alliances

After World War II, Korea was divided along the 38th parallel, with the United States administering the South and the Soviet Union the North. Both powers established governments aligned with their ideologies, leading to the Republic of Korea in the South and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea in the North in 1948. 

• In June 1950, the Korean People’s Army, led by the Soviet-backed North Korean leader Kim Il Sung, launched a surprise attack on South Korea, gaining substantial ground and taking the capital, Seoul.

• The United States and the United Nations intervened in the war two days after the initial attack. South Korean and U.S.-led UN forces were initially pushed back to the southernmost region of Pusan but later launched a successful counteroffensive, reclaiming lost territory and advancing beyond the 38th parallel.

• After the UN forces crossed the 38th parallel, the Chinese military entered the war to support North Korea in October 1950.

• On July 27, 1953, an armistice was signed, establishing a demilitarized zone along the 38th parallel, halting the open conflict but without a final peace settlement.

To this day, the two nations have not signed a peace deal and are technically at war but have agreed to a ceasefire. North Korea’s leadership has continually threatened South Korea.

North Korea: Nuclear, Sanctions, and Illicit Economy:

Since the armistice of 1953, North Korea has been openly anti-Western and has focused on bolstering its hard power, particularly nuclear capabilities.

• Nuclear Program: Beginning in the 1950s for 'non-violent' purposes, the program evolved into a weapons development program in the 1980s. Despite numerous 'deals' over the years aimed at de-nuclearization, North Korea has conducted 6 nuclear tests since 2006, and there have been reports of a 7th test being planned. 

• Sanctions: North Korea's nuclear proliferation has prompted the United Nations and several powerful countries to impose strict sanctions on North Korean products. Kim Jong Un, the current leader of North Korea, has sought to leverage his country's nuclear capabilities as a tool for bargaining.

• Illicit Economy: As a result of the intense sanctions, the North Korean economy depends heavily on exporting illicit goods and services, including weapons, drugs, and hacking.

Ukraine-Russia War: A Bird’s Eye View

Citing long-standing historical and cultural ties, Russia launched the largest attack on European soil since World War II in an attempt to take over its neighbor, Ukraine.

• On February 24, 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, aiming to capture Kyiv but encountered strong Ukrainian resistance.

• Ukraine defended Kyiv and major cities with critical Western military aid and economic sanctions against Russia.

• Nearly three years after the initial invasion, Ukraine has reclaimed some territory, but the human toll has been heavy, with casualties exceeding one million.

*We decided to omit the events of the Ukraine- Russia War from our Extensive Map since we plan to do a more complete analysis in the future.

GROWING RUSSO-NORTH KOREAN RELATIONS

After the Korean War, the USSR gradually distanced itself from North Korea. By After the Korean War, the USSR gradually distanced itself from North Korea. By 1996, the Soviet-era alliance formally expired, reflecting Moscow's shifting priorities in the post-Cold War world.

• The Early Putin Era: In the early 2000s, Vladimir Putin's administration sought to re-engage with Pyongyang through several high-level meetings. However, by 2006, Russia aligned with global consensus, supporting UN sanctions against North Korea in response to its nuclear activities.

• Shifting Stances: In 2019, Putin and Kim Jong Un met for the first time, signaling a renewed interest in closer ties. By 2022, Russia had actively opposed new sanctions against North Korea and began sourcing weapons from Pyongyang for its war in Ukraine.

• 2024 Treaty and Strategic Alignment: In June 2024, Putin made a historic visit to North Korea—the first visit in 24 years—culminating in the signing of the “Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership.” This formal agreement commits both nations to military cooperation, including a clause obligating immediate mutual defense if either country is attacked.

UKRAINIAN INCURSION INTO KURSK OBLAST

In a surprise attack on August 6, 2024, Ukrainian forces launched a campaign aimed at seizing the Russian region of Kursk Oblast. This was the first incursion onto Russian soil since World War II.

• The Incursion: Ukrainian troops successfully claimed more than 1,000 square kilometers (~400 square miles), with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy claiming the purpose was to create a buffer zone to limit Russia's war capacity to attack the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv.

• Russian Counter-Offensive: Russia launched a counteroffensive and had some success reclaiming several villages lost during the incursion.

• Advanced Technology Usage: More recently, Ukraine has employed British-made Storm Shadow missiles within Russian borders. One such strike targeted the Russian Presidential Affairs Directorate, an independent federal executive body governed by the President of Russia, causing significant military casualties.

NORTH KOREA HOLDING THEIR END OF THE AGREEMENT

North Korea’s historical ties to Russia, its illicit arms trade, and the recently formalized alliance have positioned Pyongyang as a supporter of Russia in its war against Ukraine. This collaboration spans both material support and personnel deployment, marking a significant shift in North Korea's military engagement abroad.

Non-Personnel Support:

North Korea has provided Russia with artillery systems, missiles, and conventional weapons to sustain its invasion of Ukraine. Ukrainian defense officials claim that over 60 North Korean KN-23 missiles have been fired into Ukrainian territory, highlighting Pyongyang’s scale of involvement.

Troop Deployment:

• Triggering Mutual Defense: The Ukrainian incursion into Kursk—a Russian border region—technically triggered the mutual defense clause of the Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, obligating North Korea to provide immediate military assistance.

• In November 2024, North Korean troops were deployed to Russia, notably engaging in battles in Kursk. Reports indicate that more than 10,000 troops, including elite units, have been deployed to the ground, with three North Korean generals reportedly stationed on the front lines. Ukrainian sources suggest that North Korea could eventually send up to 100,000 soldiers.

Compensation:

Russia has reportedly compensated North Korea through both financial payments and critical resources:

• Financial Payments: $2,000 USD per soldier, per month.

• Military Aid: Anti-aircraft missile systems and ammunition.

• Essential Supplies: Food and oil shipments.

• Technology Transfer: Access to space-based surveillance systems.

Concerns are growing that Russia may also share advanced nuclear technology with North Korea, raising alarms among the international community about potential proliferation risks.

DESTABILIZING FORCE

The relationship between Russia and North Korea has become an escalating destabilizing force both in the Ukraine-Russia war and on the Korean Peninsula.

US-Authorized Missile Usage: The United States, after originally not authorizing the use of Western missiles on Russian territory, agreed to allow Ukraine to leverage the technology in this way. A senior U.S. official stated that easing control over missiles was intended to send a message to Russia and North Korea.

Instability in South Korea: As North Korea fulfills its commitments under the newly formalized alliance—providing weapons and troops to support Russia’s war in Ukraine—attention has turned to what Russia might offer in return.

• A Ukrainian delegation met with South Korean government officials in Seoul. The President of South Korea, Yoon Suk Yeol, has publicly shared that they are considering sending weapons to Ukraine. Putin responded with a threat, claiming that their decisions would be "unlikely to please."

• This past week, Russia and China conducted a 'joint military exercise' by flying into South Korean airspace—a show of force by two of North Korea's allies.

• BREAKING NEWS: As of today, December 3rd, President Yoon Suk Yeol of South Korea has declared emergency martial law for the first time since 1980, using anti-North Korean rhetoric to justify the decision. Yoon claimed that North Korean interests had infiltrated the opposition party and vowed to 'eradicate pro-North Korean forces,' framing the move as necessary to 'protect the constitutional democratic order.' South Korean troops were initially deployed to the parliament building to enforce the martial law decree but later stood down after the South Korean parliament voted unanimously (190 votes to 0) against it.

North Korea’s alliance with Russia represents a strategic alignment that could reshape global power dynamics. While North Korean military support may influence the outcome of the Ukraine-Russia war, the broader implications of this partnership extend well beyond Europe. President Yoon’s attempt to impose martial law in response to suspected North Korean influence underscores the fragile state of peace on the Korean Peninsula. If conflict escalates, Russia’s role will be pivotal—but how far will Moscow go in supporting Pyongyang, and what risks is it willing to take on the global stage?